Show HN: LA Wildfire Satellite Analysis(github.com) |
Show HN: LA Wildfire Satellite Analysis(github.com) |
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@-117.8,34...
I did a private pilot license in Africa, the biggest "plus" was that I always knew the direction of the wind on the ground by looking at all these fires. There was never a time when I didn't see smoke unless I was flying in very remote areas.
Additionally, in a rainforest, wood is a cheap and easily available source of fuel for day to day household energy needs in areas that are rural, remote and with no electrical services.
Whenever I've opened watch duty, that's always the question I'm asking. How long might it take to reach [here/there]?
It isn’t theoretical either - it kills professionals too. [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_Gulch_fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Canyon_Fire], [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude_fire] for a few examples.
Long story short - never turn your back on a wildfire, and try to stay as far away as possible.
I really wish GOES's official images would provide the high resolution imagery directly. We shouldn't have to go through RealEarth to get it. However I've noticed that only RealEarth has the highest resolution images.
That graph is impressive, and really shocking how much land these fires are just taking.
The second issue is global warming.
If you have any ideas on how to get the manpower necessary to perform 100+ years of backlogged forest maintenance spanning the entire west coast, or (better) how to fix global warming, I’d love to hear it.
Also, desalination at the scale necessary to meet California’s demands is beyond current technology (especially if it’s done without destroying the ocean ecosystem). Note that the central valley relies on irrigation, and is the bread basket of the US.
Curious what is involved with this. If indigenous people could do it, why couldn't a larger population with superior tech do it? Sounds like a worthwhile venture. Even if it costs a fortune it might be better than rebuilding LA every 30-50 years.
Connect the sewage / storm water system to a few massive pumps and back flush everything.
Set off a few nukes in the bay to cause a tidal wave.
I’m no civil engineer / hydrologished, so there’s probably issues with my drive-by dismissal of a serious issue.
2) Salt water is highly corrosive to equipment, and also kills vegetation. But it used as a last resort when fresh water reservoirs are empty...and was used in previous Malibu fires...
3) For an example of how important aerial support is: the Sunset Fire and the Mt Wilson flameup of the Eaton fire were controlled within an hour each through the use of aerial water drops.
Probably slow controlled burns would be helpful in reducing potential fuel, but who's going to perform controlled burns over the entirety of all the hills surrounding LA ?
Keeping the forest clean of combustible materials is the only real preventive solution, but that's almost impossible to do by humans (besides lots of issues with depletion of soils if done incorrectly). The old way of doing that (and raise meat for human consumption) in Southern Europe, was to have goats, lots of goats, eating up all that combustible mass and transforming it into meat and "natural fertilizer".
Preventable via multiple methods, you've been downvoted presumably for seeming insensitivity, but it seems a valid question. Water is plentiful, it's a rich area. This stuff can be prevented. Why wasn't it?
They also do shaded fire breaks, which make sense.
They know to do use control burns, we've been doing it.
It's forest management 101.
But they get sued by environmentalists when they do.
Heating isn't really an issue in the part I lived (warm all year round, even in the night) and the smell of burned plastic is quite distinguishable, even at higher altitudes.
If they told you the 99% percentile odds of the next trigger pull, would it be okay to stay if you thought you liked the odds?
And if you were silly enough to believe him, who would be to blame if he was wrong?
Oh, here are some more [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yarnell_Hill_Fire]. Oh and [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1933_Griffith_Park_fire]. And [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackwater_Fire_of_1937]
There is a reason why firefighters are considered to be one of the most heroic professionals.
And some more (not all related to wildfires though) [https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_deadliest_firefi...]
https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fire-inmate-firef...
If you mean a more specific analysis: there's no way to do that with a level of detail or accuracy that would be relevant to individual decision-making. There are simply too many variables in the air, in the fuel, and even in the fire itself.
Here is something of that ilk:
The statement "the climate has been changing all the time" is often used to downplay the significance of current climate change. While it's true that Earth's climate has undergone natural changes throughout its history, the current warming trend is different for several reasons:
Rate of Change: The current rate of warming is unprecedented in the past several thousand years. Natural climate fluctuations typically occur over much longer timescales, allowing ecosystems and species to adapt gradually. The rapid pace of current change is making it difficult for many species to keep up, leading to disruptions in ecosystems and biodiversity loss.
Cause of Change: While past climate change events were triggered by natural factors like volcanic eruptions or solar variations, the current warming trend is primarily driven by human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels. This has led to a significant increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, trapping heat and warming the planet.
Magnitude of Change: The projected magnitude of future warming, if left unchecked, is likely to exceed the changes experienced during the past several million years. This could have severe consequences for human societies and natural ecosystems, including rising sea levels, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and widespread species extinctions.
Evidence: The overwhelming scientific consensus supports the conclusion that human activities are the primary cause of current climate change. This is based on a vast body of evidence from multiple independent lines of research, including temperature records, ice core data, and climate models.
In summary, while the Earth's climate has naturally changed over long periods, the current warming trend is distinct in its rate, cause, magnitude, and supporting evidence. It is crucial to recognize the unique nature of human-induced climate change and take action to mitigate its impacts.
I do wonder why we accept the reports from a number of rather distinguished climatologists and physicists who do not accept this 'scientific consensus'. Given the very significant swathe of the public who are convinced by the latter, why isn't this academic divide finally put to rest and the skeptics shown to be demonstrably wrong in their selection of data and their interpretations? It does not seem to happen. Why not? If this is an existential crisis I would have thought that such public debates at a very high level by extremely well-informed experts are well overdue. Yes, some occur but they are never definitive?
"Current surveys may underestimate climate change skepticism evidence from list experiments in Germany and the USA" https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8262789/
'California has experienced increasingly severe autumn wildfires over the past several decades, which have exacted a rising human and environmental toll. Recent fire and climate science research has demonstrated a clear link between worsening California wildfires and climate change, mainly though the vegetation-drying effect of rising temperatures and shifting precipitation seasonality.'
'Thus, the wildfire risk across much of SoCal will be even greater than the sum of its parts (i.e., the strong winds or dry fuels individually). This is an increasingly prominent concern, as has been previously discussed, with increasing overlap between “offshore wind season” and “critically dry vegetation season” in California---and is something that is expected to happen more often with climate change (especially in Southern California).'
"It was found that nearly all the observed increase in burned areas over the past half-century is due to human-caused climate change."
What's needed is the reeducation of the NIMBY crowd .. I live in a state where many local community members are motivated to egage with local volunteer bush fire services and cool burning is less of an issue.
As the urbanisation and luxury housing increases the resistance to "inconveniance" seems to also climb.
Rather various degrees of ‘fuck you, I got mine’ and ‘it won’t happen to me because I’m special’. Which, often, is true enough they can keep doing it until they die, at which point they ‘win’.
Sometimes though, either something happens and they ‘don’t have theirs’ anymore, or it becomes too clear it will happen to them - and some action occurs. Usually too late for it to be an easy or smooth change, of course.
* https://firefighterinsider.com/can-you-put-out-a-fire-with-s...
But I think the honorific goes to the Dropbox dismissal.
You wrote "You appear to be repeating what we all blah blah" and guess what, the poster I responded to started it :-)
A weak point of zero value like "weather has been changing all the time" deserves absolutely no more effort than the response I gave, what do you think? Anyone with an ouce of honesty and self-respect and care for the future would know by now that such a statement is completely worthless with 100% certainty.
And the so-called skeptics have been shown to be demonstrably wrong in their selection of data and their interpretations many many times, they just choose to ignore the evidence and to lie and lie and repeat. There are whole websites like realclimate that go through absolutely everything that's been ponied up by now.
And finally, full disclaimer but I thought my post was clear enough about that: except for the intro, all the points were pasted straight out of ChatGPT! No one has to accept the worn-out intellectual denial-of-service attack of climate trolls now, demanding exhausting pure sweet clear responses as response to half-baked brain farts. Like I said: low-effort on troll's part, low-effort on responder. Is fair.
But the public reception doesn’t really tell us much about the strength of the conclusions. For which there is overwhelming consensus, very clear mechanisms of action, and pretty straightforward directional signal.
Are you questioning the comms or the consensus? I’m not clear from your response.