convexly | Dark Hacker News

user:	convexly
created:	March 25, 2026
karma:	151
about:	Interested in forecasting, calibration, and anything that helps people be less wrong! convexly.app

1.	We scored 10k Polymarket wallets. Calibration barely predicts profit(convexly.app) 4 points by convexly 28 days ago \| 0 comments
2.	We tested the insider trading claim on Polymarket with Taleb-proof methods(convexly.app) 6 points by convexly 33 days ago \| 1 comment